To win the Tour de France – the biggest prize in pro cycling – you need the full package: legs, brains, team, time trialling ability, and the resilience to suffer for three relentless weeks. Not all of this year’s top riders tick every box. That’s why we’ve broken down the five main contenders: where they shine, where they wobble, and how they stack up against each other.
CYCLING247’s Tour de France 2025 GC contenders top trumps
Call it a GC Top Trumps – the 2025 edition. We’ve rated each rider across six key categories:
- Climbing, how well they go uphill
- Descending, how well they go downhill
- Recovery, how they fare over three weeks, what are the chances of them having a bad day
- Time trialling, their ability to race against the clock
- Team, how strong and smart is the support around them in terms of riders and staff
- And finally, experience, how they cope with pressure, what’s their experience of having the eyes of the world on them, do they make mistakes when the stakes are high.
So, in reverse order, let’s go:
#5 Primoz Roglič
- Climbing – 8/10
- Descending – 7/10
- Recovery – 8/10
- Time Trialling – 7/10
- Team – 7/10
- Experience – 5/10
CYCLING247’s take: The oldest of the five and one of the most experienced, Roglič has already won the Giro and the Vuelta, the Tour de France still eludes this former-ski jumper. On his day, he’s fast, smart and powerful, but when the very best are on the start line – Evenepoel, Vingegaard and Pogačar – he tends to come up just short.
One big issue? Crashes. He’s had bad luck, sure, but it keeps happening, especially in big races when the pressure is on. He even had to quit this year’s Giro after, you guessed it, hitting the deck again.
He’s still a world-class rider, and if everything goes as well as it should, he could sneak onto the podium. But unless something goes wrong for the others, we don’t see him fighting for the win.
#4 João Almeida
- Climbing – 8/10
- Descending – 8/10
- Recovery – 7/10
- Time Trialing – 8/10
- Team – 5/10
- Experience – 7/10
CYCLING247’s take: Almedia is red hot at the moment – his win at the Tour de Suisse showed just how strong and consistent he is. He’s also one of the smartest time trial riders out there. His style? Ride at his own pace, don’t panic if he gets dropped on a climb, then slowly claw his way back on. It works.
The downside? Other than an arguable lack of experience meaning he’s not yet faced high pressure at big races, his first priority involves working for his teammate Pogačar, which limits his chances of making a full-on GC bid. Our prediction is that he’ll be fighting for the chocolate medal, 4th place, whilst giving everything for his team captain.
#3 Remco Evenepoel
- Climbing – 7/10
- Descending – 9/10
- Recovery – 8/10
- Time Trialing – 10/10
- Team – 7/10
- Experience – 8/10
CYCLING247’s take: We still don’t fully know what Evenepoel is capable of in the Tour de France – he’s the youngest rider in this selection and it’s only his second Tour. But we do know he’s a weapon against the clock and one of the best descenders in the sport. He’s got the talent and the mindset to go big.
But where he might struggle is the high mountains. He can climb, sure, but compared to Vingegaard and Pogačar, he’s just a step below. His team is also decent, but not on the level of Visma or UAE, so he may be caught out on his own.
He might not win this year – but a podium and the white jersey? Very likely. And if not this year, then the next.
#2 Jonas Vingegaard
- Climbing – 9/10
- Descending – 9/10
- Recovery – 9/10
- Time Trialing – 9/10
- Team – 10/10
- Experience – 9/10
CYCLING247’s take: Back-to-back Tour winner (2022 & 2023), Vingegaard is close odds on for taking his third title. He’s had a clean, injury-free build-up this year, and is coming in ready to fight for a third yellow jersey – though we wish he had the same bulletproof Visma behind him of previous years.
He and Pogačar are incredibly closely matched on paper, but what tips the scales is the way they race. Vingegaard will stay methodical and measured, and over three weeks, that matters.
Still, we think it’ll take a momentous team effort (possible, but less certain this year), or one off day from his biggest rival. And that’s the key here – this year, Vingagaard might have to be more reliant on others’ faltering than on outright dominance. If everyone’s flying, we predict he’ll finish second. Again.
#1 Tadej Pogačar
- Climbing – 10/10
- Descending – 10/10
- Recovery – 10/10
- Time Trialing – 9/10
- Team – 9/10
- Experience- 10/10
CYCLING247’s take: When it comes to winning, few make it look as easy as Pogačar. That is why he is our Top Trump pick for taking the yellow jersey in Paris. Daring, almost untouchable on the ups and downs, he’s most likely to light up the race – and the one everyone is watching.
He does have two potential weaknesses One: his team is not as strong as his closest rival Vingegaard. Two: his team management can’t really control him. If Pogačar feels good and smells an opportunity, he’ll attack without hesitation. Amazing for us sitting on the couch watching, but it’s the attacks like this that can burn you over three weeks.
That said, unlike last year, he’s coming in fresh – no Giro in the legs – and that’s a dangerous version of Pogačar. If he can keep his cool for the long game, we think he’ll take his third Tour. As ever, a reminder: the mental strain at the Tour de France is equal to the physical load, so these predictions are best-case scenarios, with endless chances of bad luck, punctures, crashes, sickness, cross winds and more – form is never a given.
That is why our biggest tip is to strap yourselves in and get ready for a 21-stage roller coaster, because predictions aside there is one certainty, the Tour de France. Always. Brings. Fire. Enjoy!
Check out our course preview and how to watch, and get our take on the teams who are most likely to be in contention this year.
